My Research
Research Projects
Reducing the burden of osteoarthritis in Aotearoa New Zealand (2022–2027)
Our research centre was awarded an HRC Programme grant to investigate optimal ways to improve the management of osteoarthritis in NZ. This research programme involves a randomised clinical trial of a novel lifestyle intervention consisting of exercise therapy, dietary change, and self-management education, for people with osteoarthritis and multimorbidity; epidemiological and health economic research on the impacts of osteoarthritis prevention and management strategies, and health economic simulation modelling to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel treatment pathways and models of care for osteoarthritis in the New Zealand healthcare system. I am leading the simulation modelling project within this research programme. For more information on this programme, please see the CMOR website.
Measuring the health state preferences of New Zealanders (2022–2026)
I was awarded a project grant from the Health Research Council of New Zealand to investigate the validity of the SF-6D health state utility instrument in the New Zealand population, to derive a NZ population value set for the SF-6D, and to develop tools to support the use of the instrument for population health and equity monitoring and cost-effectiveness evaluation of healthcare in the NZ health system. At present the SF-6D, and the SF-12 health status questionnaire from which it is derived, is widely used in clinical practice, population health monitoring, and health research in NZ, without evidence of its validity for this population or the availability of a utility value set based on preferences elicited from the NZ population. This mixed methods project will combine qualitative kaupapa Māori research methods to evaluate the appropriateness of the SF-6D for the NZ, and especially Māori, population; instrument development if required to refine the SF-6D to meet the needs of the NZ population and healthcare system; and cutting-edge discrete choice experiment (DCE) survey methods to develop a value set reflecting the preferences of the NZ population for the trade-offs between health-related quality of life domains inherent in healthcare prioritisation and funding decisions.
Chronic opioid use before and after joint replacement surgery (2018–ongoing)
I have received grants from the Otago Medical Research Foundation and the H.S and J.C Anderson Charitable Trust for studies of the prevalence, risk factors, and consequences of chronic opioid use before and after total hip and knee replacement surgery, using linked national population data from the IDI. Several outputs from this project are now available:
- We showed, using a comprehensive dataset including all joint replacement surgeries performed in the NZ public healthcare system, the continued prevalence of opioid use for as long as three years after surgery. This work has been published in the New Zealand Medical Journal and presented to the NZ Orthopaedic Association Annual Scientific Meeting.
- A second paper from this project identifies several important risk factors that can to help identify patients at high risk of such prolonged post-surgical opioid use, which could be useful in identifying targeted interventions to reduce opioid exposure for these at-risk groups. This paper has been published in the Journal of Arthroplasty.
- A third study investigates the long-term health, economic, and social impacts of perioperative opioid prescribing, and shows substantial increases in healthcare use and costs associated with preoperative opioid prescribing, but little evidence of any negative impacts of postoperative opioid prescribing to support short-term surgical recovery. This study has been published in Family Practice.
- A further study looking at the dose-response relationship between preoperative opioid use and long-term outcomes is in progress. An analysis plan is freely available on the Open Science Framework, and a preliminary report will be published shortly.
The health economic case for implementing ACL injury prevention interventions (2020–ongoing)
I am part of a project, led by Dr Yana Pryymachenko, that has received preliminary funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand to investigate the impact of ACL injury prevention programmes on long-term outcomes, including the incidence and associated health and economic burden of early knee osteoarthritis. This preliminary project involves investigating the feasibility of using matching methods to identify comparable groups of individuals with and without the occurrence of an ACL injury, using comprehensive linked national data from the IDI, and to use these matched cohorts to evaluate long-term outcomes following an ACL injury. If this feasibility study proves successful, we intend to use this approach to inform cost-effectiveness evaluations of injury prevention strategies to support the implementation and uptake of such programmes across the New Zealand population (for example, via schools, sports clubs, and workplaces where people are at risk of ACL injury).
Publications and Outputs
Journal articles
Other publications
Statistical Analysis Plan for Reducing the burden of knee osteoarthritis through community pharmacy: A randomised controlled trial of the Knee Care for Arthritis through Pharmacy Service. With James Stanley and Ben Darlow. 18 October 2024. Available at https://hdl.handle.net/10523/42913 |
Economic evaluation of the effects of manual therapy for knee osteoarthritis: Study protocol. With Yana Pryymachenko, Haxby Abbott, and Cathy Chapple. 17 May 2024. Available at https://osf.io/arn9v/ |
Interventions used to Improve Health Outcomes in Patients with Multimorbidity: Protocol for An Updated Systematic Review. With Yen Wei Lim, Ibrahim Al-Busaidi, Richelle Caya, Alessio Bricca, Dee Mangin, and Haxby Abbott. 22 April 2024. Available at https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/vypqh |
Health system and societal costs following osteoarthritis diagnosis in primary care: a population-based matched cohort study. With Yana Pryymachenko, Deborah Schofield, Rupendra Shrestha, Ben Darlow, Tony Dowell, Jayden MacRae, Ricky Bell, and Haxby Abbott. 19 April 2024. Available at https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/8b39f |
The long-term effects of opioid use before joint replacement surgery: A dose-response trial emulation with New Zealand linked register data. Analysis plan. With Yana Pryymachenko, Haxby Abbott, Peter Choong, and Michelle Dowsey. 8 September 2023. Available at https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/g52kt |
The health system and societal costs of osteoarthritis in New Zealand: Methodology and results of the process for funding an optimal matching model. With Haxby Abbott and Yana Pryymachenko. 5 July 2023. Available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22661551.v3 |
Long-term outcomes of cruciate ligament injury: a revised matched cohort analysis of New Zealand linked register data. Analysis plan. With Yana Pryymachenko, Haxby Abbott, and Ricky Bell. 6 June 2023. Available at https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/9yu5r |
Long-term outcomes of cruciate ligament injury: attempting a matched cohort analysis of New Zealand linked register data. With Yana Pryymachenko and Haxby Abbott. 14 April 2023. Available at https://doi.org/10.17605/osf.io/zfuyg |
The health system and societal costs of osteoarthritis in New Zealand: Analysis plan. With Haxby Abbott, Yana Pryymachenko, Deborah Schofield, and Rupendra Shrestha. 6 May 2022. Available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16900156 |
The long-term impacts of opioid use before and after joint replacement surgery: Report on finding the optimal matching model. With Yana Pryymachenko and Haxby Abbott. 27 July 2021. Available at https://hdl.handle.net/10523/12166 |
How New Zealand’s healthcare system is failing people with osteoarthritis. With Haxby Abbott. An article for a general audience on problems with the management of osteoarthritis in the New Zealand healthcare system, and recommendations for delivering more effective and cost-effective treatments, based on our HRC-funded research. The Conversation, 31 March 2021. Available at https://theconversation.com/how-new-zealands-healthcare-system-is-failing-people-with-osteoarthritis-157138 |
CMOR Evidence Table. An interactive web application presenting results from a research project, The Impact and Management of Rising Osteoarthritis Burden, on stakeholder preferences and cost-effectiveness of different treatments for knee osteoarthritis 1 December 2020. Available at http://cmor-shiny.otago.ac.nz |
Baseline Data Capture: Cultural Safety, Partnership, and Health Equity Initiatives. With Shirley Simmonds, Marnie Carter, and Nick Preval. For the Medical Council of New Zealand Allen + Clarke, Wellington, September 2020. |
Evaluation of the Mobility Action Programme (MAP), Cycle 2 report. With Jessie Wilson, Haxby Abbott, Brendan Stevenson, and Yasmine Kayem. For the New Zealand Ministry of Health Allen + Clarke, Wellington, March 2020. |
Evaluation of the Mobility Action Programme (MAP), Cycle 1 report. With Nicole Waru, Jessie Wilson, Carolyn Hooper, Nick Preval, and J Haxby Abbott. For the New Zealand Ministry of Health Allen + Clarke, Wellington, December 2018. |
Presentations
Virtual Health Information Network (VHIN). Webinar, August 2025. Long-term health and economic impacts of cruciate ligament injuries [invited presentation] |
Aotearoa Osteoarthritis Research Network Annual Meeting. Auckland, July 2025. The long-term effects of opioid use before joint replacement surgery: A dose-response trial emulation using linked administrative data |
New Zealand Association of Economists 65th Annual Conference. Wellington, June 2025. Clinical practice guideline implementation to improve healthcare delivery and reduce healthcare costs |
8th Pharmacoepidemiology Research Network Symposium. Dunedin, November 2024. The long-term effects of opioid use before total joint replacement surgery: a dose-response trial emulation with New Zealand linked administrative data |
ACR Convergence. Washington, D.C., November 2024. Cost-effectiveness of low dose colchicine prophylaxis when starting allopurinol using the “Start-Low Go-Slow” approach for gout [poster presentation] |
National Institute for Public Health, University of Southern Denmark. Seminar, September 2024. The New Zealand Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) |
PROgrez Research and Implementation Unit, Region Sjælland. Seminar, September 2024. Why economic evaluations are important in health research and how to get started |
Clinical Pharmacology, Pharmacy and Environmental Medicine, Department of Public Health, University of Southern Denmark. Seminar, September 2024. Health economics for pharmacoepidemiologists – a primer |
Department of Sports Science and Clinical Biomechanics, University of Southern Denmark. Seminar, September 2024. Impacts of preoperative opioid use on outcomes after joint replacement surgery |
Center for Muscle and Joint Health, University of Southern Denmark. Seminar, September 2024. Why health economic evaluations are important in muscle and joint research and how to get started |
Bruce McMillan Memorial Seminar. Dunedin, July 2024. The long-term impacts of opioid use before and after joint arthroplasty [invited presentation] |
OARSI World Congress. Vienna, April 2024. Health system and societal costs following osteoarthritis diagnosis in primary care [poster presentation] |
OARSI World Congress. Vienna, April 2024. Predictive models for identifying hip and knee osteoarthritis in primary care electronic records: a natural language processing text classifier approach [poster presentation] |
OARSI World Congress. Vienna, April 2024. The primary care diagnosis and management of osteoarthritis [poster presentation] |
Aotearoa Osteoarthritis Research Network Annual Meeting. Dunedin, November 2023. The diagnosis and management of osteoarthritis in Aotearoa New Zealand primary care |
Australia and New Zealand Musculoskeletal Clinical Trials Network (ANZMUSC) Annual Scientific Meeting. Sydney [Virtual], October 2023. Economic evaluation in a clinical trial: the LEAP trial [invited presentation] |
Aotearoa Osteoarthritis Research Network Annual Meeting. Wellington, November 2022. Navigating the early-mid career research pathway [invited presentation] |
Aotearoa Osteoarthritis Research Network Annual Meeting. Wellington, November 2022. Optimal treatment of hip and knee OA across the disease course |
University of Otago Division of Health Sciences, Early and Mid-Career Researcher Annual Conference. Dunedin, November 2021. Incorporating economic evaluation in clinical research to support research impact |
Back and Neck Pain Forum. Global virtual conference, November 2021. The effect of a guideline-implementation intervention (the FREE approach) on the primary care management of low back pain: Economic evaluation |
Department of Surgical Sciences, Dunedin School of Medicine. Departmental seminar, November 2020. The CMOR Collaborative Research Writing initiative (CMOR-CREW) |
Health Services Research Association of Australia and New Zealand, 11th Health Services and Policy Research Conference. Auckland, December 2019. The convergent validity of seven health state utility instruments |
Health Services Research Association of Australia and New Zealand, 11th Health Services and Policy Research Conference. Auckland, December 2019. Modelling the cost-effectiveness of knee osteoarthritis treatments |
New Zealand Orthopaedic Association Annual Scientific Meeting. Dunedin, October 2019. The projected burden of knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand: total joint replacement and healthcare expenditure |
Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Dunedin Hospital. Seminar, October 2019. The projected burden of knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand: total joint replacement and healthcare expenditure |
Department of Surgical Sciences, Dunedin School of Medicine. Departmental seminar, October 2019. The projected burden of knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand: total joint replacement and healthcare expenditure |
OARSI World Congress. Toronto, October 2019. The cost-effectiveness of recommended adjunctive osteoarthritis management options: Results from a computer simulation model [poster presentation] |
OARSI World Congress. Toronto, October 2019. Integrating values and preferences with the best available evidence: A multi-criteria decision analysis approach [poster presentation] |
OARSI World Congress. Toronto, October 2019. Projecting the healthcare burden of knee osteoarthritis in New Zealand: Results from a computer simulation model [poster presentation] |
Department of Surgical Sciences, Dunedin School of Medicine,. Departmental seminar, June 2018. Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Body Mass Index in New Zealand, 1997–2038 |
Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Dunedin School of Medicine, University of Otago, and the Public Health Association Otago/Southland. Public Health Seminar, March 2017. The development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand |
ISPOR 19th Annual European Congress. Vienna, November 2016. *Modelling total knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis in New Zealand: Validation of a population-based state-transition microsimulation model * [poster presentation] |
Society for Medical Decision Making 38th Annual Meeting. Vancouver, October 2016. The health-loss burden of osteoarthritis in New Zealand: Results from a new computer simulation model [poster presentation] |
Department of Surgical Sciences, Dunedin School of Medicine. Departmental seminar, September 2016. The development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand |
OARSI World Congress. Amsterdam, March 2016. Health-loss burden of osteoarthritis in New Zealand: Computer-simulation estimate and between-model cross-validation [poster presentation] |